Design an A/B test for a checkout change — what's the OEC?
Experiment designMediumProblem. The team ships a streamlined checkout to lift order conversion. Design the A/B test — unit, metrics, and the Overall Evaluation Criterion.
Before you reveal: say your answer out loud, as if you were in the real interview — get your reasoning across clearly first. There is no single correct answer: reading what the interviewer is really after and defending your own thinking is what makes an answer strong.
Clarify the question first
- "Decision — ship to all consumers? So the estimand is the effect on orders/retention."
- "Randomize by consumer (consistent experience)?"
- "Is the risk that faster checkout lifts orders but adds low-quality/mis-orders?"
Lay out your approach
- Randomize by consumer. Consistent experience and clean retention reads.
- OEC beyond conversion. The primary should be orders (and downstream retention), not just checkout-conversion — a change that lifts conversion but adds cancellations or low-retention orders isn't a win.
- Guardrails: cancellations/refunds, support contacts, average order value, and unit economics; plus a marketplace check (a big order lift can strain supply → delivery-time guardrail).
- Power and read over enough time for retention, with variance reduction on the noisy order metric.
Then check in: "Consumer-level randomization, an OEC of orders + retention (not just checkout conversion), with cancellation/AOV and marketplace guardrails. Want me to defend the OEC?"
Simulate the back-and-forth
Land a clear conclusion
Key summary — what really matters.
- Randomize by consumer; consistent experience, clean retention.
- OEC = orders (net of cancellations) + retention, not checkout conversion alone.
- Guardrails: cancellations/refunds, AOV, unit economics, delivery-time (marketplace).
- CUPED for the noisy order metric; read over a retention window; check SRM.
Conversion up, orders flat? Two reads of a checkout change:
| Signal | Story A (real) | Story B (hollow) |
|---|---|---|
| Checkout conversion | +5% | +5% |
| Cancellations | flat | +8% |
| Net orders | +4.5% | +1% |
| D30 retention | +0.5pp | −1pp |
Same conversion lift; Story A is a real win, Story B just added friction after checkout. Only the net-orders and retention read distinguishes them — which is why the OEC can't be checkout conversion.
CUPED. Adjusting the order metric by each consumer's pre-period order rate removes much of the between-consumer variance, often cutting the needed sample by a large factor — essential for a noisy metric like orders.
| Dimension | What interviewers look for | Below the bar ❌ | Above the bar ✅ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Framing & estimand | Whether the OEC is orders + retention. | Checkout conversion. | Orders net of cancellations + retention. |
| Design validity | Whether guardrails cover the risks. | None. | Cancellations, AOV, unit economics, delivery-time. |
| Statistical rigor | Whether you handle power/noise. | Ignore variance. | CUPED; retention window; SRM check. |
| Decision & trade-offs | Whether you catch the marketplace effect. | Consumer metrics only. | Supply strain from a demand lift. |
| Communication | Whether you justify the OEC. | "Conversion up." | OEC rationale + guardrails. |
Strong-answer signal: an orders+retention OEC (not checkout conversion), the right guardrails including marketplace supply, and CUPED for power. Common trap: optimizing checkout conversion alone, ignoring cancellations, retention, and supply strain.