Forecast a new game launch's marketing performance

ForecastingHard

Problem. A new game launches next quarter. Finance/marketing need a forecast of installs and revenue to plan budget. How do you build it and handle the uncertainty?

Before you reveal: say your answer out loud, as if you were in the real interview — get your reasoning across clearly first. There is no single correct answer: reading what the interviewer is really after and defending your own thinking is what makes an answer strong.