Conversion rose 8% after a new consent banner. Real or artifact?

Causal inferenceHard

Problem. After a new cookie consent banner went live on European websites, the conversion rate measured in analytics (bookings per measured visit) rose about 8%. The product team credits a cleaner page. At the same time, the share of visitors who consent fell from 62% to 55%. Is the conversion lift real?

Before you reveal: say your answer out loud, as if you were in the real interview — get your reasoning across clearly first. There is no single correct answer: reading what the interviewer is really after and defending your own thinking is what makes an answer strong.